Predicting the Best Picture winner for theOscars 2025is more difficult than most years, but there are some vital stats and trends to know if you want to choose who will win correctly. This year’s nominees includeAnora,The Brutalist,A Complete Unknown,Conclave,Dune: Part Two,Emilia Pérez,I’m Still Here,Nickel Boys,The Substance, andWicked. While each holds a technical chance ofwinning the Oscars 2025 Best Picture category, they are not all realistic. That’s why most of the race has revolved aroundAnora,The Brutalist,Conclave, andEmilia Pérezbeing the frontrunners at different points.
Now that the 97th Academy Awards ceremony is right around the corner, if you’re like me, you want to predict what movies will win the different categories correctly. This is especially true for Best Picture. The Oscars' biggest prize has had a very different race this year than last year whenOppenheimereasily retained its frontrunner status and dominated the awards show. WithAnora,The Brutalist,Conclave, andEmilia Pérezdoing well with nominations and precursor awards, predicting the winner isn’t easy. That’s why I’ve compiled some stats and trends to try and help sort through a competitive race.
10SAG’s Best Cast Winner Has Matched Best Picture Roughly 50%
A Point In Conclave’s Favor
Conclave’s biggest precursor win came at the Screen Actors Guild Awards when it was selected as the Best Cast category winner. This category can often be seen as a strong indicator of what movie is going to win Best Picture at the Oscars. That’s only become more true in recent years.The winner at SAG has matched the eventual Best Picture winner four of the last five years, asOppenheimer,Everything Everywhere All At Once,CODA, andParasitewon at SAG before getting the Oscar. That’s whyConclave’s Best Picture candidacyimproved following its SAG victory.
If you want to bet on SAG and the actor’s branch deciding the race,Conclaveshould be the pick. However, it’s worth noting that while SAG has a strong track record in recent years, the overall history of the correlation between the two awards is shakier. 15 of 29 movies that won at SAG went on to also win Best Picture overall. So, whilethe math indicatesConclavehas a slight edge, that also means it’s not a lock. In fact, the last three times SAG and Oscars didn’t match, the Best Picture winner wasn’t even nominated for Best Cast.
9PGA Has Matched The Best Picture Winner 12 Of The Last 15 Years
Anora Benefits From This Trend
Anoragot a major boost to its Best Picture standing when it was selected as the winner of the top prize at the Producers Guild of America Awards. The PGAs have an incredibly strong track record of predicting the Best Picture winner, as they have matched 12 of the last 15 years. The movies that won at PGA and failed to win Best Picture are1917(2019),La La Land(2016), andThe Big Short(2015). Overall, they’ve matched 24 of 35 times. That is whyAnorabecame the Best Picture frontrunnerto many after this win.
Every Award Anora Has Won
Anora is a significant awards season performer, racking up wins from various festivals, ceremonies, and critics groups ahead of the Oscars.
Agreeing with PGA is arguably one of the safer bets when it comes to predicting what will win Best Picture.There has only been one Best Picture Oscar winner that didn’t have a PGA nomination, so the ceremony has always had a strong connection to the Academy. That stat sinksNickel BoysandI’m Still Here's chances.Anorahas had a steady rise late in the season to reclaim its frontrunner status seemingly, so voters aligning with the PGA winner could happen - regardless of if Mikey Madison wins Best Actress.
8Winning Best Director Goes A Long Way To Winning Best Picture
The Two Awards Often Go Hand-In-Hand
The Best Director lineup for the Oscars 2025 includes some big names who have all received their first Oscar nomination. It’s a close race between the nominees: Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), and James Mangold (A Complete Unknown). Predicting who wins the directing Oscar could be vital to correctly getting Best Picture right.There is a strong history of Best Director and Best Picture going to the same movie, as they’ve matched 69 of 96 times previously. This includes four of the last five years.
When looking at Best Director, it appears that the race is down to Sean Baker - who won at DGA - and Brady Corbet - who won at Golden Globes and BAFTA.Whoever you ultimately choose to win Best Director, you should probably predict their movie to win Best Picture too. But you can’t do that if you’re siding withConclave. There is certainly a world where the categories split if Corbet wins Best Director and Baker’sAnorawins Best Picture. Similarly, any argument forA Complete Unknownwinning Best Picture would likely require a surprise Mangold win here.
7A Best Director Oscar Nomination Is Almost Always Needed To Win Best Picture
Sorry, Denis Villeneuve & Dune: Part Two
Not only is winning Best Director a great way to get a film to win Best Picture, but having a nomination in both categories is a must.There have only been six instances where a movie won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination:Wings(1927/28),Grand Hotel(1931/32),Driving Miss Daisy(1989),Argo(2012),Green Book(2018), andCODA(2021). Barring a statistical anomaly, that would essentially rule outConclave,Dune: Part Two,Nickel Boys,I’m Still Here, andWicked.
Edward Berger (Conclave), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Walter Salles (I’m Still Here), and Jon M. Chu (Wicked) were not nominated for Best Director
The odds of the 97th Academy Awards delivering the seventh such example of this are higher than normal, though. Edward Berger was a surprising omission from theBest Director lineup, and there is clearly love forConclave.If any of the Best Picture nominees without a Best Director nom are going to win,Conclaveis the best option. Still, anyone looking for a reason to go against picking the pope drama can certainly find one with this stat.
6Winning Either Screenplay Category Can Foreshadow A Best Picture Win (Especially Adapted)
A Potential Saving Grace For Conclave
Best Director has the strongest connection to Best Director among the other categories, but winning a screenplay category is not far behind. The Best Picture winner has also won either Best Adapted or Best Original Screenplay in 61 of a possible 96 times. Adapted Screenplay is the greater predictor between the two categories, as 42 of the matches come from there, while only 19 are from Original Screenplay. Even if we narrow the scope down to more modern times,Best Picture has also won a screenplay category in 9 of the last 12 years.
WithAnorapossibly set to lose Original Screenplay toA Real Pain, if Best Picture matches a screenplay category this year,Conclaveis the best option.
This re-opens the door forConclaveto emerge as a Best Picture winner, as it is the expected winner in Adapted Screenplay. However, it’s also worth noting that the matching has favored Original Screenplay more recently. Five Best Picture winners in the last 10 years also won Original Screenplay versus only two receiving Adapted Screenplay. But withAnorapossibly set to lose Original Screenplay toA Real Pain, if Best Picture matches a screenplay category this year,Conclaveis the best option.
5Only 1 Movie Has Won Best Picture & Best International Feature Film
Emilia Pérez & I’m Still Here Are Contenders In Both
Emilia PérezandI’m Still Hereare long shots to win Best Picture at this point, although for very different reasons. Predicting either to win would likely mean believing they have a chance to joinParasite’s exclusive club. Bong Joon-ho’s 2019 movie is the only film in Oscars history to win Best Picture and Best International Feature Film.Emilia PérezandI’m Still Hereare nominated in both categories. Statistically, aBest Picture nomination guarantees a win in International Feature, but that won’t be the case this year with two nominees in both categories for the first time.
This is really a mark againstEmilia PérezandI’m Still Here’s odds to win. Neither film currently has enough support to believe that they can win both of these categories. Even as the Academy’s voting body expands and becomes more international,it’s still not common for foreign language films to win Best Picture.
4Only 2 Sequels Have Ever Won Best Picture
Dune 2 Won’t Become The Third
Dune: Part Twoisn’t going to win Best Picturefor a lot of reasons, even if you’d consider it your favorite film of the nominees, as I would. The reality is that there have only ever been two sequels to win Best Picture:The Godfather Part IIandThe Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Denis Villeneuve’sDune 2is the 12th sequel nominated in the category. And while it may win some below-the-line categories, the poor track record for sequels andDune 2’s surprisingly low position in awards season gives it no chance to win.
Best Picture Suggestion: Don’t pickDune: Part Two
3There’s Only Been 1 Horror Movie To Win Best Picture
Similarly, it would not be wise to predict thatThe Substancewill win Best Picture. It has the Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Actress nominations to help its case, but its horror genre nature negatively impacts it.The Silence of the Lambsis theonly horror movie to win Best Picture.The Substanceis the seventh horror movie nominated in the category, so even though it has a technical chance to be the second such winner, the Oscars selecting a body-horror film as the best film of the year would be a massive shock.
210 Musicals Have Won Best Picture
Wicked & Emilia Pérez Are Unlikely To Change This
There were different points in awards season whenWickedorEmilia Pérezwere viewed as frontrunners to win Best Picture and bring some more recognition for musicals. However, neither film is expected to win the category at this stage, and Oscars history shows one reason why. There have only been10 musicals to win Best Picture. It’s become increasingly uncommon over the years too. AfterOliver!won in 1968, it took another 34 years beforeChicagowon it all. It’s been another 22 years since then without a musical win in Best Picture.
116 Biopics Have Won Best Picture
A Complete Unknown Gets A Slight Bump Up
If you want to believe thatA Complete Unknownwill win Best Picture, looking at the history of biopics could bolster your feelings. The biopic genre includes all types of films, but the Academy is prone to reward them occasionally. There have been 16 movies to win Best Picture that can be classified as a biopic, including last year’s winner,Oppenheimer. However,biopics haven’t won Best Picture in back-to-back years since 1984-1985.
Barring surprise wins in Director and Screenplay, to go along with Timothée Chalamet in Best Actor, I wouldn’t count onA Complete Unknownwinning. It could do well on theOscars 2025preferential ballots but not enough to actually unseat a bigger contender.
