UPDATE: 2025-06-19 08:05 EST BY BRENNAN KLEIN

Sonic 3 Falls Far Short Of Original Franchise-Best $72 Million+ Debut Projections, Still Handily Beats Mufasa

This article was originally written Saturday AM and has been updated Sunday AM with up-to-date box office projections (in bold), a full chart, and further analysis.

Sonic the Hedgehog 3has taken the lead overMufasa: The Lion Kingat the pre-Christmas domestic box office. Both movies are follow-ups to successful franchises, with theSonic the Hedgehog 3releasemarking the third live-action feature-length installment in the video game adaptation franchise that also includes the Paramount+ spinoff showKnuckles. Meanwhile, the Disney photorealistic CG musicalMufasais a prequel to their 2019 remakeThe Lion King, which grossed $1.66 billion, making it the highest-grossing animated movie of all time until that record was overtaken byInside Out 2in 2024.

PerVariety, as of Sunday morning,Sonic the Hedgehog 3is projected to take No. 1 at the domestic box officewith an estimated 3-day opening weekend total of$62 million. While this has seen it fall considerably short of its original projections that had it potentially beating the debut ofSonic the Hedgehog 2($72.1 million) for a franchise-best record, this is still higher than the originalSonic($58 million) and more than enough to allow the sequel to overtakeMoana 2, which has topped the chart for three weekends in a row following its mid-week release over Thanksgiving.

Sonicis also easily speeding pastMufasa: The Lion King, which has a projected domestic opening of$35 million, a total that will see it debut at No. 2. This falls below its initial early projections of $50 million, though its Saturday projections were already showing it having fallen to a range between $36 and $38 million, so its weekend has not taken as sharp a downhill turn asSonic. See the full Top 5 domestic chart for the weekend below:

1

Sonic the Hedgehog 3

$62 million

$62 million (weekend 1)

2

$35 million

$35 million (weekend 1)

3

$13.5 million

$383.9 million (weekend 5)

4

$13.1 million

$359 million (weekend 4)

5

$6 million

$6 million (weekend 1)

There has been a lot of movement on the chart considering the influx of new releases, which also includes the Neal McDonough-led Angel Studios movieHomestead, which debuted at No. 5 with an estimated 3-day haul of $6 million. The holdover Thanksgiving hitsWickedandMoana 2had been battling for the No. 3 position, withWickedpulling ahead by $0.4 million, falling just one position on the chart after landing at No. 2 the previous weekend.Moana 2slid much further, falling from No. 1 to No. 4, though it passed the $350 million domestic milestone in the meantime.

Meanwhile, the third Thanksgiving blockbuster,Ridley Scott’sGladiator II, has fallen off the board entirely, slipping from No. 4 to No. 6 with $4.4 million. Also departing the Top 5 isKraven the Hunter,dropping a staggering 72% with $3.3 million seeing it plummet from No. 3 to No. 7in its second weekend.The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrimhas also had a tough sophomore weekend, dropping from No. 5 to No. 9 with $1.2 million likewise seeing it fall 72%.

What This Means For Sonic And Mufasa

The Sonic Franchise Has A Bright Future

TheSonic the Hedgehogfranchisemay have justcemented itself as a major contender by trouncing Disney this weekend. After a string of flops in 2023 that includedThe Marvels,Wish,Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, andHaunted Mansion, Disney came roaring back at the box office in 2024 with record-smashing hits includingInside Out 2andDeadpool & Wolverine. It seemed possible thatMufasawould join their number, considering the fact that it is the follow-up to the tenth highest-grossing movie of all time.

On top ofInside Out 2becoming the highest-grossing animated movie of all time,Deadpool & Wolverinebecame the highest-grossing R-rated movie of all time.

The international grosses for theMufasareleasehave alreadypushed its global opening to a much firmer standingof $122.2 million, helping it get much closer to its break-even point. Because movies typically need to earn back at least two and a half times their production costs, this milestone is likely somewhere around $500 million given its roughly $200 million budget.

However, the fact that the Disney movie was handily defeated in the domestic sphere bySonic 3, which is part ofa franchise that has so far topped out at between $300 and $400 million worldwide per installment, speaks to the video game brand’s continued rise in theaters, even though it took something of a nosedive in the tail end of its opening weekend. The upcomingSonic 4, which has already been announced, could now be in a position where it might scare other titles away from premiering on the same weekend.

Our Take On The Weekend’s Box Office

Sonic And Mufasa Both Have Great Potential

Ultimately, bothSonic the Hedgehog 3andMufasa: The Lion Kingwill probably benefit from long tails, continuing to rack up higher and higher domestic grosses as the holiday season continues into the new year. While there is a whole host of new releases coming midweek on Christmas Day, namelyBabygirl,Nosferatu,The Fire Inside, andA Complete Unknown, none of them are the same type of blockbuster tentpole. While the Disney movie may never catch up withSonicin North America,both have the chance to continue dominating the chart in tandem for weeks to come.

Cast

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 reunites Sonic, Knuckles, and Tails as they face a formidable new adversary, Shadow. With Shadow’s unprecedented powers posing a significant threat, Team Sonic seeks an unexpected alliance to thwart his plans and safeguard the planet.

Mufasa: The Lion King

Mufasa: The Lion King explores the origins of the beloved character Mufasa, focusing on his youth as a lost cub who encounters Taka, a royal heir. Their meeting initiates an epic journey of self-discovery and destiny, featuring a group of misfit companions navigating the challenges of their world.